South Sudan’s crisis is far beyond a power struggle

On December 15, around 10 PM, heavy gun fire clashes between the South Sudanese presidential guards were reported in the capital Juba. The national TV went off air, and the airport was closed. The following day, President Salva Kiir appeared in full military attire in a press conference and accused the former vice president Riek Machar of leading a failed coup.

The death of several hundreds in few days and the attacks on UN soldiers forced international and regional mediators to intervene in an attempt to prevent this political tension from escalating into a civil war. As negotiations are being arranged, several questions need answers: Are the factors behind this crisis purely political? How mature is the country’s leadership? And how fragile is this nascent nation? In fact, several questions will remain unanswered.

The 15^th of December is nothing but a turning point in an ongoing power struggle. A week before the alleged coup, senior officials from the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (“SPLM”) party held a press conference, openly criticizing Salva Kiir’s leadership of the party and the whole country.
Machar was in the lead, and along with his colleagues he declared a rally to take place few days later. As party seniors invited Machar and his colleagues for an internal dialogue with Kiir during the National Liberation Council (“NLC”) event, the rally was postponed. Bishops and sheikhs gave the opening speech of the NLC reminding all the leaders in the room that discussion was the wise way to solve problems.
But apparently this did not calm the brewing anger. After the first day of the NLC meetings, and specifically on December 14, Machar declared he was pulling out of the meeting and invited his colleagues to do the same.

Last July, Machar was sacked from his position as a vice president, but remained serving as the vice chairman of the ruling SPLM. Commenting on his dismissal with a smile, he declared he will run against President Kiir for his positions as chairman of the SPLM and as president of the Republic.
Machar was not the only challenger to Kiir’s leadership. Pagan Amum, the former secretary-general of SPLM, who was sacked at the same time as Machar, also declared he would run for president in the 2015 elections. Amum was later subject to an internal SPLM investigation and was dismissed from the party – a decision which incited much criticism about Kiir.

Both men had a habit of openly criticizing Kiir’s decisions even when they still served in office. But after their dismissal, they waged a campaign against the SPLM’s leader, calling for internal reform and describing him as an undemocratic president.

In a mosaic society like South Sudan, politics is never the sole motive behind power struggles......Read More  
http://globalriskinsights.com/2014/01/08/south-sudans-crisis-is-far-beyond-a-power-struggle/

Guevara is dead جيفارا مات

On the 8th of October 1967, this man, Mr. Ernesto Che Guevara, died.

You can look up his life but I prefer to speak of his death . 

Look up  an extensive chronology of his death here

 On Guevara's assassination:

On October 9th, 1967, Ernesto "Che" Guevara was put to death by Bolivian soldiers, trained, equipped and guided by U.S. Green Beret and CIA operatives. His execution remains a historic and controversial event; and thirty years later, the circumstances of his guerrilla foray into Bolivia, his capture, killing, and burial are still the subject of intense public interest and discussion around the world. 
 

As part of the thirtieth anniversary of the death of Che Guevara, the National Security Archive's Cuba Documentation Project is posting a selection of key CIA, State Department, and Pentagon documentation relating to Guevara and his death. This electronic documents book is compiled from declassified records obtained by the National Security Archive, and by authors of two new books on Guevara: Jorge Castañeda's Compañero: The Life and Death of Che Guevara (Knopf), and Henry Butterfield Ryan's The Fall of Che Guevara (Oxford University Press). The selected documents, presented in order of the events they depict, provide only a partial picture of U.S. intelligence and military assessments, reports and extensive operations to track and "destroy" Che Guevara's guerrillas in Bolivia; thousands of CIA and military records on Guevara remain classified. But they do offer significant and valuable information on the high-level U.S. interest in tracking his revolutionary activities, and U.S. and Bolivian actions leading up to his death.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB5/ 

 

White House Memorandum, October 11, 1967: In another daily update, Walt Rostow reports to President Johnson that "we are 99% sure that 'Che' Guevara is dead." Rostow believes the decision to execute Guevara "is stupid," but he also points out his death "shows the soundness of our 'preventive medicine' assistance to countries facing incipient insurgency--it was the Bolivian 2nd Ranger Battalion, trained by our Green Berets from June-September of this year, that cornered him and got him." 

 

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB5/

Meles Zenawi: From a Freedom fighter to a Dictator

Just another story of a man who started his life as a freedom fighter and gradually turned into a dictator.
His reign can be summarized in two key numbers: 21 years in office & 99% success rate in elections. He ruled his country with an iron fist, and claimed achieving a sustainable economic development pace for Ethiopia. Not only did he introduce the ethnic federalism model, but he also maintained a relatively stablized country. However, rebel movements never disappeared from the different regions of the country.  

A strong friend of the United States, A frequent stubborn foe of Egypt, he played an influential role in the Horn of Africa Region.
 

Here is a selection of articles that highlight different aspects of both his life & death. 

 A short biography

Meles Zenawi leaves behind richer, less tolerant Ethiopia

 http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_meles-zenawi-leaves-behind-richer-less-tolerant-ethiopia_1730717 
Ethiopian strongman Meles Zenawi led one of Africa's most populous nations for more than two decades, steering it along the path of economic growth while clamping down on dissent.

A towering figure in Africa's political landscape, Prime Minister Meles died late on Monday aged 57 at an overseas hospital where he had been recovering from an undisclosed illness for two months, state-run television said on Tuesday. He was born Legesse Zenawi in 1955 in Adwa, the site of Ethiopia's most celebrated victory against colonial invaders Italy in 1896.

He took the nom-de-guerre Meles as a tribute to Meles Tekle, a young activist killed by the government. But the time Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the head of the Communist junta that ruled the country from 1974 to 1987, launched his Red Terror purge in 1977, Meles had ditched his medical studies and was fighting in the bush.

He was a rising figure in the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) that he helped found as a 20-year-old, which then aligned with other groups to form the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. The EPRDF entered Addis Ababa in 1991, much to the amazement of the locals.
Meles led the country first as transitional president and later, after poorly contested elections in 1995, as prime minister of the renamed Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, winning renewed mandates in 2005 and 2010 in polls that rights groups said were rife with violations.

The West welcomed Africa's youngest leader enthusiastically, grateful for his overthrow of a communist regime and impressed with his urbane manner. It also came to value him for the central role his country - home to one of Africa's biggest armies - played in regional and continental security.
Former US President Bill Clinton said Meles was part of a "new generation" of African leaders and he was invited to join then British Prime Minister Tony Blair's crusading Commission for Africa. At home, the EPRDF set about trying to pull Ethiopia out of poverty, pledging to drive growth and improve the lives of peasant farmers.

It introduced a system of ethnic federalism, opening regional parliaments and giving Ethiopia's main ethnic groups the chance to govern the areas in which they dominate. Under Meles' leadership, the Horn of Africa country also embarked on a mass of energy and infrastructure projects, while hospitals and schools throughout the country have surged ten-fold. Officials expect economic growth of 11% for the 2011/2012 fiscal year that ended in June, thanks to rising agricultural output, the seventh consecutive fiscal year of growth. However, inflation remains stubbornly high, hitting 20 percent in July.
Meles forged close business ties with India and Turkey as well as Asian powerhouse China, which footed the $200 million bill for the sprawling, new headquarters of the African Union. The former rebel has made key contributions to regional security, twice sending troops into Somalia to battle Islamist rebels, while Ethiopian peacekeepers have been deployed in several African hotspots such as Sudan's Darfur and Abyei regions.

But Meles' record of solid economic growth, poverty reduction and closer ties to the West has been coloured by a firm crackdown on dissent. Following the disputed polls of 2005, Ethiopia rounded up almost the entire leadership of an opposition group that won an unprecedented number of seats in parliament and jailed them for life for treason. In 2009 followed an anti-terror law, under which more than one hundred opposition figures have been arrested.

The government insists it is tackling rebel groups that have links with al Qaeda and arch-foe Eritrea. More than 10 journalists have also been charged under the law, according to the Committee to Protest Journalists.
The group says Ethiopia is close to replacing Eritrea as the African country with the highest number of journalists behind bars. Two Swedish journalists were jailed for 11 years on charges of entering the country illegally and aiding a rebel group. Navi Pillay, the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights, has slammed the verdicts, saying journalists, human rights defenders and critics were facing a "climate of intimidation".
Meles responded with trademark defiance, labelling the duo as "messengers boys of terror groups". During the Group of Eight summit in Chicago last May, Meles was interrupted soon after he started to speak: "You are a dictator! You have committed crimes against humanity!" a member of the audience said. The bald, bespectacled strongman, visibly shocked at first, tried to continue talking before staring down, stony-faced.



 Future Impact:

Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi dies after illness

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19328356

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has died aged 57 in a hospital abroad, the government says.

It did not give details but an EU spokesman later told journalists Mr Meles had died in Brussels, Belgium.
Mr Meles had not been seen in public for weeks and speculation about his health mounted when he missed a summit in Addis Ababa last month.
His deputy, Hailemariam Desalegn, becomes prime minister until elections due in 2015, state media reported.
Mr Meles took power as the leader of rebels that ousted communist leader Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
He is credited with spearheading economic development in Ethiopia - but, critics charge, at the price of respect for human rights.

He was austere and hardworking, with a discipline forged from years spent in the guerrilla movement - and almost never smiled, says Elizabeth Blunt, the BBC's former correspondent in Addis Ababa.

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said Mr Meles was an "intellectual leader for the continent", and UK Prime Minister David Cameron called him "an inspirational spokesman for Africa" who had lifted millions out of poverty.
But a spokesman for al-Shabab Islamist militants in Somalia - where Mr Meles twice sent troops to fight - told Reuters news agency they were "very glad" of his death, saying Ethiopia was "sure to collapse".
Ethiopia's Council of Ministers announced "with great sadness the untimely death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi" in a statement, state TV reported.
The statement said Mr Meles had been receiving medical treatment abroad for the past two months and that his health was improving. But he developed a "sudden infection" on Sunday and despite emergency treatment, died at 23:40 on Monday.
European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly later told a regular news briefing that Mr Meles "passed away during the night here in Brussels".

Over some eight weeks that Mr Meles had been absent from the public eye, concerns about his health had grown, and in July he was said to have been admitted to hospital.

Reports suggested he was in hospital in the Belgian capital suffering a stomach complaint but these were never confirmed by the Ethiopian authorities.
Three weeks ago, government spokesman Bereket Simon dismissed reports Mr Meles was critically ill, and declined to give any details about Mr Meles's whereabouts.
A period of mourning had been declared until the funeral, for which no date has been announced.
State television said his body would be flown to Addis Ababa later on Tuesday.

Instability concerns
Mr Hailemariam, who is also Ethiopia's foreign minister, will become acting prime minister, government spokesman Bereket Simon told reporters.
He said an election was not necessary as the "constructional procedure" allowed for Mr Hailemariam to "kick off as a full-fledged prime minister".
In an earlier news conference, Mr Bereket said Mr Meles had struggled with illness for a year, but he had continued to work regardless.

Concerns have been expressed - including by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga - that Mr Meles's death could lead to a power vacuum and dangerous instability in Ethiopia.
But Mr Bereket insisted the country was stable and that "everything will continue as charted" by the late prime minister.
This theme was echoed by state television, which stated that "even if Ethiopia has been badly affected for missing its great leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi initiated fundamental policies and strategies which will be further strengthened".
Ethiopia's economy has grown rapidly in recent years, despite the secession of Eritrea and the subsequent war between the two countries.

Under Mr Meles, Ethiopia became a staunch US ally, receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in aid over the years, and hosting the US military drones that patrol East Africa.

He won accolades from the West for sending troops to battle Islamist militants in Somalia, says the BBC's James Copnall.
But concern had been growing about the lack of democracy and human rights in Ethiopia, our correspondent in the region says.
At least 200 people died in the violence that followed the 2005 elections, and many journalists and politicians have been locked up.
One rights critic, Commander Assefa Seifu, called Mr Meles "a devil incarnate".
"He was always talking about democracy, civil rights, adherence to [the] constitution and the like. But it was only a lip service," he told the BBC.

 Analysis

  James Copnall BBC News

Meles Zenawi's death will have repercussions far beyond his country. He was undeniably central to everything in Ethiopia - the good and the bad, the economic growth and development, as well as the repressive climate denounced by opposition politicians and journalists. But he also played a key role in the region.
Since Mr Meles took power in 1991, Ethiopia has seen Eritrea secede, then fought a war with the new country. It also twice sent troops into Somalia to fight militants linked to al-Qaeda.
Ethiopia also has peacekeepers in Abyei, the border region claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan.
Political leaders in all these countries will be carrying out rapid calculations about what Mr Meles' death means for them.
The West has also lost a key ally in the Horn of Africa. Now the attention will switch to whether Mr Meles built a strong enough system to outlast him. He was austere and hardworking, with a discipline forged from years spent in the guerrilla movement - and almost never smiled, says Elizabeth Blunt, the BBC's former correspondent in Addis Ababa. Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said Mr Meles was an "intellectual leader for the continent", and UK Prime Minister David Cameron called him "an inspirational spokesman for Africa" who had lifted millions out of poverty.
But a spokesman for al-Shabab Islamist militants in Somalia - where Mr Meles twice sent troops to fight - told Reuters news agency they were "very glad" of his death, saying Ethiopia was "sure to collapse".
Ethiopia's Council of Ministers announced "with great sadness the untimely death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi" in a statement, state TV reported.
The statement said Mr Meles had been receiving medical treatment abroad for the past two months and that his health was improving. But he developed a "sudden infection" on Sunday and despite emergency treatment, died at 23:40 on Monday.
European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly later told a regular news briefing that Mr Meles "passed away during the night here in Brussels".



How Egyptians see him:

Here is an interesting look on how Egyptian press saw his life. The title of the following article is :

Meles Zenawi....US's cop in the African Horn and the enemy of Egypt's historic share in the Nile

ميليس زيناوى.. الشرطي الأمريكي في القرن الإفريقي وحامل لواء العداوة لحصة مصر من مياه النيل

بعد فترة من التعتيم والسرية الشديدة فرضتها السلطات الإثيوبية دامت أكثر من شهرين بشأن حقيقة مرض رئيس الوزراء ميليس زيناوي، أعلن اليوم الثلاثاء رسميًا عن وفاته في بلجيكا عن عمر ناهز 57 عامًا.

ارتبط اسم زيناوي مع الشارع المصري للمرة الأولى عام 1994 بعد محاولة الاغتيال الفاشلة التى تعرض لها الرئيس السابق حسني مبارك على الأراضى الإثيوبية، وزاد هذا الارتباط في السنوات الأخيرة بسبب إصراره على منازعة مصر في حصتها التاريخية بمياه النيل، وعدم اعترافه باتفاقية نهر النيل الموقعة عام 1959 التى تحدد حصص كل دولة من دول حوض النيل في مياه النهر.

اتخذ زيناوى موقفًا معاديًا لمصر خلال السنوات الثلاث الأخيرة، واتهمها بمحاولة زعزعة أمن واستقرار بلاده عبر بتمويل جماعات متمردة مسلحة تسعى للاستيلاء على السلطة، في موقف فُسِرَ وقتها بأنه محاولة للخروج من أزماته الداخلية ومحاصرة المعارضة له ومطالبته باصلاحات سياسية واقتصادية في البلاد.

استطاع زيناوي أن يؤثر على دول حوض النيل، وقام بإقناع بوروندي وأوغندا وكينيا تنزانيا ورواندا، بتوقيع الاتفاقية الإطارية الجديدة لتقاسم مياه النيل عام 2011، الأمر الذي يهدد أمن مصر المائي بشكل كبير.

وفي سعيه لأن يثبت دعائم حكمه في إثيوبيا؛ انفتح زيناوى على القوى الكبرى وخاصة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، بهدف تحويل بلاده إلى قوى إقليمية في المنطقة مستغلًا في ذلك الحرب على الإرهاب والجماعات الجهادية المسلحة، وسوقَ نفسه باعتباره الشرطي الأمريكي في منطقة القرن الأفريقي، مستغلًا حالة السيولة الشديدة التي تشهدها جارته الصومال، والانفلات الأمني الذي تعيشه بعد أن تحولت إلى قبلة لتنظيم القاعدة، والتنظيمات الجهادية.

قام زيناوي بتحريك جيشه داخل الأراضي الصومالية للمرة الأولى عام 2006 بهدف القضاء على حركة الشباب المتشددة، فيما اعتبر وقتها أكبر خطوة وثقت علاقات إثيوبيا بالغرب منذ الإطاحة بمنجستو هيلا ميريم.

وفي عام 2011 قامت القوات الإثيوبية بدخول الصومال للمرة الثانية بدعم أمريكي أوروبي، وأكد زيناوي أن بلاده تعتزم الإبقاء على قواتها في الصومال إلى حين التصديق على دستور جديد للبلاد، و يصبح جيشها قادرًا على مواجهة خطر المتشددين.

دخل زيناوى في علاقات وثيقة مع إسرائيل، وفتح الباب على مصراعيه للأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية خاصة الموساد، وتحولت أديس أبابا إلى واحدة من أقوى قواعد الموساد في إفريقيا ومعبر تل أبيب القوى للتغلل في غرب ووسط القارة الإفريقية، تحت ستار تصدير تكنولوجيا الري والزراعة التى تتفوق فيها الدولة العبرية إلى القارة السمراء.


وبالرغم من الانتقادات الشديدة التى وجهت إلى زيناوي، يُحسب له القفزة الكبيرة التى شهدها الاقتصاد الإثيوبي خلال سنوات حكمه، وتحقيقه معدلات نمو تخطت الستة فى المائة خلال السنوات الخمس الأخيرة، وكان أكثر المجالات نموًا في البلاد هو الزراعة، التى أولاها اهتماما شديدًا نظرًا للامكانيات الإثيوبية الكبيرة غير المستغله فى الأراضى والمياه.

جدير بالذكر أن زيناوي ولد عام 1954 في إقليم تكراي بشمال إثيوپيا، ودرس الطب في جامعة أديس أبابا وكانت تعرف وقتها باسم جامعة هيلا سلاسي لمدة سنتين، ثم ترك دراسة الطب عام 1975، وانضم إلى جبهة تحرير شعب تكراي، وعندما كان عضوا في الجبهة، أسس الاتحاد الماركسي-اللنيني لتكراي.

تولى زيناوى حكم إثيوبيا عام 1991م، بعد أن أطاح المجلس العسكري الذي كان عضوًا بارزًا فيه بالديكتاتور السابق منجستو هيلا مريم، واستمر في منصبه حتى عام 1995 ، ثم تولى رئاسة الوزراء منذ ذلك الحين بعد أن أجرى اصلاحات سياسية وتعديلات غيرت نظام الحكم في البلاد من رئاسي إلى برلماني، بهدف عدم صناعة ديكتاتور جديد، بيد أن هذا الهدف لم يتحقق بعد أن أحكم زيناوي قبضته على إثيوبيا، واستمر على رأس النظام السياسي أكثر من 20 عامًا، كنتيجه لإصراره على وضع مادة في الدستور تنص على تحصين منصب رئيس الوزراء من الإقالة.

حصل زيناوي على ماجستير في إدارة الأعمال من الجامعة المفتوحة في المملكة المتحدة عام 1995، ثم ماجستير العلوم في الاقتصاد من جامعة إراسموس في هولندا عام 2004.

في عام 1998 تعرض زيناوى إلى أقوى اختبار في حياته السياسية عندما قامت إريتريا بغزو بلاده، مما أدى لاندلاع حرب أسفرت عن مقتل عشرات الآلاف من الشعبين.

أظهر زيناوي خلال الحرب مع إثيوبيا قدرة سياسية وعسكرية بارعة استطاع خلالها أن يوحد الشعب الإثيوبي خلف قواته، وتمكن من دحر القوات الإريترية بل وسيطر على على حوالي ثلثي الأراضي الإرترية، وبالرغم من ذلك قام بتوقيع معاهدة سلام مثيرة للجدل مع إريتريا تضمن لها امتيازات عديدة.

أثار هذا القرار غضب الكثير من الإثيوپيين وأدى إلى حالة انقسام داخل الحزب الحاكم، بسبب قناعة كثيرين أن زيناوي يرغب في الحفاظ على الرئيس الإريتري أسياسي أفورقي.

وفي عام 2011 تغير موقف زيناوي من أفورقي وأعلنت إثيوبيا صراحة دعمها لجماعات إريترية متمردة تسعى للإطاحة بالرئيس أفورقي. وفي مارس الماضي أقرت إثيوبيا للمرة الأولى أن قواتها قامت بهجمات على المتمردين داخل إريتريا، وكانت هذه أول مرة تعترف فيها أديس أبابا بوقوع مثل تلك الهجمات منذ انتهاء الحرب الحدودية بين البلدين

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/13/71/242647/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%B2%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B7%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7.aspx .

Syrian Insurgent groups and militias التشكيلات المسلحة للثوار والكتائب المنتشرة في انحاء سوريا