Mubarak, Morsi, and then?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Muriel Mirak-Weissbach

Muriel Mirak-Weissbach is a political journalist specialising in economic, political and cultural development in the Arab and Islamic world for thirty years. She is the author of two books published by Ithaca Press Through the Wall of Fire, Armenia – Iraq – Palestine: From Wrath to Reconciliation, and Madmen at the Helm: Pathology and Politics in the Arab Spring.

In his famous novel Animal Farm, George Orwell satirized the outcome of the Bolshevik revolution and Stalinism. His allegorical tale showed how a gang of animals had risen up against the exploitative farmer and seized power, only to reproduce the political structures they had sought to eliminate.

Something similar may be unfolding in Egypt. After the 2011 revolution, in which mass forces mobilized nationally over 18 days and forced President Hosni Mubarak to resign, an interim military government came in, followed by the Muslim Brotherhood, led by Mohammad Morsi, declared winner of the May–June 2012 presidential elections. Now, less than a year after assuming power, Morsi, who pledged to be the president of all Egyptians, is being denounced as ‘no better than Mubarak’, even the ‘new pharaoh of Egypt’. Masses of Egyptians, including many formations that constituted the revolutionary movement that ousted Mubarak, are again taking to the streets this time demanding Morsi’s downfall, carrying posters which explicitly identify him as the reincarnation of the ousted dictator. Some are calling on the military to intervene, at least temporarily, to oversee a transition to democratic rule.

In my book on the psychological aspects of the Arab upheavals,[*] I posed the following question: are dictators, most often characterized by narcissism and other personality disorders, born or are they made? Are they doomed by traumatic childhood experiences and other social conditions to become tyrannical leaders, or are they well-meaning individuals who, once assuming political power, turn into such? Is it the case that ‘power corrupts’?

Egypt, as I witnessed during a recent visit to Cairo, provides a good case study. When he was inaugurated last June, Morsi, a leading figure of the Islamists so long persecuted by Mubarak, enjoyed public support. This was the case despite the fact that the electoral process had not been free from controversy, regarding the procedures leading to the vetting of candidates and the actual voting and tallying.

It did not take long for Morsi to fall from grace, and it was all of his own doing. His first big mistake was to overrule the Supreme Constitutional Court by calling the dissolved parliament back into session. This was the beginning of a continuing challenge to state institutions, the judiciary and military. On 22 November he issued a declaration in which he decreed (à la Mubarak) special powers to the president, i.e. to himself. Thus, all his decisions, decrees, laws etc., were protected from changes or cancellation. He also arrogated the right to take any measures he deemed necessary to protect the revolution. Although public pressure forced him to retract some of these measures, he did not fully receive the message. Instead, he rammed through a constitutional draft put together by an Islamist-dominated rump constituent assembly, announced a referendum and then new elections. Morsi proceeded to fill all possible political as well as civilian positions with people from his party, the Muslim Brotherhood, or, Ikhwan in Arabic. Egyptians call this the Ikhwanization of political and public life and compare it most unfavorably with the nepotism and favoritism characteristic of the Mubarak era. Not only has the Muslim Brotherhood put its people in ministries, but also in leadership positions of businessmen’s associations, religious and civil society organizations, etc. As Mustafa El-Labbad from the Al Sharq Center for Strategic Studies told me in an interview, through this Ikhwanization process, businessmen associated with the Brotherhood are reaping benefits as they did earlier; they are the same ‘compradors, only this time bearded.’

When I asked my Egyptian friends why Morsi was making such egregious errors, jeopardizing the power he and his movement had so long aspired to, the answer I got was: ‘it’s ideological.’ In fact, if these reports are reliable, Morsi’s Brotherhood government would like to introduce a number of demands that can only be understood as issuing from ideological concerns. Among them are the calls for eliminating a traditional Egyptian spring festival, changing the national anthem, removing music from school curricula and the like.
Egyptians of all political tendencies are demanding responsible leadership to lead the country into a new era. This means restoring public order and economic security, and finally introducing institutions of truly representative government. The number of people killed during demonstrations has been rising and the economy is on the verge of collapse. Unless the Morsi regime wakes up to political reality, it will be as readily dispensed with as was the Mubarak regime. Elections called by Morsi for Parliament cannot take place if the opposition, which, though not unified programmatically, represents a secure majority of the population, successfully leads a boycott. And if the economically and politically important governorate of Port Said, which has become a center of protest, refuses to take part, then the elections will be meaningless. Even if the polls were to be held, if only the Brotherhood and other Islamist parties were to take part, and if they were to ‘win’, that would be a Pyrrhic victory, which international bodies would have great difficulty in acknowledging.

What awaits Egypt is something that George Orwell did not contemplate in his fictional scenario: a new revolution. Although it is politically heterogeneous, the opposition can find its unity in a commitment to representative government. Civil disobedience has spread across the country, intellectuals and artists are issuing statements demanding Morsi’s resignation. And the opposition is also wielding that invincible weapon of humor. The most popular weekly television show is ‘The Program’, featuring Bassem Youssef, the Egyptian answer to American political satirist Jon Stewart. Youssef devotes most of his show to biting ridicule of Morsi and the Brotherhood. The 6 April Movement, which was at the forefront of the revolution, launched an initiative to send Morsi to the moon and collected over 20,000 signatures, placing his name on an online competition sponsored by the Axe Apollo Space Academy. Novelist Ibrahim Abdel-Meguid was quoted in Al-Ahram weekly in late February, saying: ‘If he is not getting the message from the demonstrations, and if he is not getting it from the jokes wanting to send him to the moon, then he might get it from the statements addressed to him directly.’ He added: ‘Morsi had his chance, but he failed to make anything of it. His performance shows that he is totally disconnected from what is going on in the country. He must really come from the moon, and he might as well go back there.’

http://www.ithacapress.co.uk/creator/muriel-mirak-weissbach 

Meles Zenawi: From a Freedom fighter to a Dictator

Just another story of a man who started his life as a freedom fighter and gradually turned into a dictator.
His reign can be summarized in two key numbers: 21 years in office & 99% success rate in elections. He ruled his country with an iron fist, and claimed achieving a sustainable economic development pace for Ethiopia. Not only did he introduce the ethnic federalism model, but he also maintained a relatively stablized country. However, rebel movements never disappeared from the different regions of the country.  

A strong friend of the United States, A frequent stubborn foe of Egypt, he played an influential role in the Horn of Africa Region.
 

Here is a selection of articles that highlight different aspects of both his life & death. 

 A short biography

Meles Zenawi leaves behind richer, less tolerant Ethiopia

 http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_meles-zenawi-leaves-behind-richer-less-tolerant-ethiopia_1730717 
Ethiopian strongman Meles Zenawi led one of Africa's most populous nations for more than two decades, steering it along the path of economic growth while clamping down on dissent.

A towering figure in Africa's political landscape, Prime Minister Meles died late on Monday aged 57 at an overseas hospital where he had been recovering from an undisclosed illness for two months, state-run television said on Tuesday. He was born Legesse Zenawi in 1955 in Adwa, the site of Ethiopia's most celebrated victory against colonial invaders Italy in 1896.

He took the nom-de-guerre Meles as a tribute to Meles Tekle, a young activist killed by the government. But the time Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the head of the Communist junta that ruled the country from 1974 to 1987, launched his Red Terror purge in 1977, Meles had ditched his medical studies and was fighting in the bush.

He was a rising figure in the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) that he helped found as a 20-year-old, which then aligned with other groups to form the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. The EPRDF entered Addis Ababa in 1991, much to the amazement of the locals.
Meles led the country first as transitional president and later, after poorly contested elections in 1995, as prime minister of the renamed Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, winning renewed mandates in 2005 and 2010 in polls that rights groups said were rife with violations.

The West welcomed Africa's youngest leader enthusiastically, grateful for his overthrow of a communist regime and impressed with his urbane manner. It also came to value him for the central role his country - home to one of Africa's biggest armies - played in regional and continental security.
Former US President Bill Clinton said Meles was part of a "new generation" of African leaders and he was invited to join then British Prime Minister Tony Blair's crusading Commission for Africa. At home, the EPRDF set about trying to pull Ethiopia out of poverty, pledging to drive growth and improve the lives of peasant farmers.

It introduced a system of ethnic federalism, opening regional parliaments and giving Ethiopia's main ethnic groups the chance to govern the areas in which they dominate. Under Meles' leadership, the Horn of Africa country also embarked on a mass of energy and infrastructure projects, while hospitals and schools throughout the country have surged ten-fold. Officials expect economic growth of 11% for the 2011/2012 fiscal year that ended in June, thanks to rising agricultural output, the seventh consecutive fiscal year of growth. However, inflation remains stubbornly high, hitting 20 percent in July.
Meles forged close business ties with India and Turkey as well as Asian powerhouse China, which footed the $200 million bill for the sprawling, new headquarters of the African Union. The former rebel has made key contributions to regional security, twice sending troops into Somalia to battle Islamist rebels, while Ethiopian peacekeepers have been deployed in several African hotspots such as Sudan's Darfur and Abyei regions.

But Meles' record of solid economic growth, poverty reduction and closer ties to the West has been coloured by a firm crackdown on dissent. Following the disputed polls of 2005, Ethiopia rounded up almost the entire leadership of an opposition group that won an unprecedented number of seats in parliament and jailed them for life for treason. In 2009 followed an anti-terror law, under which more than one hundred opposition figures have been arrested.

The government insists it is tackling rebel groups that have links with al Qaeda and arch-foe Eritrea. More than 10 journalists have also been charged under the law, according to the Committee to Protest Journalists.
The group says Ethiopia is close to replacing Eritrea as the African country with the highest number of journalists behind bars. Two Swedish journalists were jailed for 11 years on charges of entering the country illegally and aiding a rebel group. Navi Pillay, the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights, has slammed the verdicts, saying journalists, human rights defenders and critics were facing a "climate of intimidation".
Meles responded with trademark defiance, labelling the duo as "messengers boys of terror groups". During the Group of Eight summit in Chicago last May, Meles was interrupted soon after he started to speak: "You are a dictator! You have committed crimes against humanity!" a member of the audience said. The bald, bespectacled strongman, visibly shocked at first, tried to continue talking before staring down, stony-faced.



 Future Impact:

Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi dies after illness

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19328356

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has died aged 57 in a hospital abroad, the government says.

It did not give details but an EU spokesman later told journalists Mr Meles had died in Brussels, Belgium.
Mr Meles had not been seen in public for weeks and speculation about his health mounted when he missed a summit in Addis Ababa last month.
His deputy, Hailemariam Desalegn, becomes prime minister until elections due in 2015, state media reported.
Mr Meles took power as the leader of rebels that ousted communist leader Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
He is credited with spearheading economic development in Ethiopia - but, critics charge, at the price of respect for human rights.

He was austere and hardworking, with a discipline forged from years spent in the guerrilla movement - and almost never smiled, says Elizabeth Blunt, the BBC's former correspondent in Addis Ababa.

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said Mr Meles was an "intellectual leader for the continent", and UK Prime Minister David Cameron called him "an inspirational spokesman for Africa" who had lifted millions out of poverty.
But a spokesman for al-Shabab Islamist militants in Somalia - where Mr Meles twice sent troops to fight - told Reuters news agency they were "very glad" of his death, saying Ethiopia was "sure to collapse".
Ethiopia's Council of Ministers announced "with great sadness the untimely death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi" in a statement, state TV reported.
The statement said Mr Meles had been receiving medical treatment abroad for the past two months and that his health was improving. But he developed a "sudden infection" on Sunday and despite emergency treatment, died at 23:40 on Monday.
European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly later told a regular news briefing that Mr Meles "passed away during the night here in Brussels".

Over some eight weeks that Mr Meles had been absent from the public eye, concerns about his health had grown, and in July he was said to have been admitted to hospital.

Reports suggested he was in hospital in the Belgian capital suffering a stomach complaint but these were never confirmed by the Ethiopian authorities.
Three weeks ago, government spokesman Bereket Simon dismissed reports Mr Meles was critically ill, and declined to give any details about Mr Meles's whereabouts.
A period of mourning had been declared until the funeral, for which no date has been announced.
State television said his body would be flown to Addis Ababa later on Tuesday.

Instability concerns
Mr Hailemariam, who is also Ethiopia's foreign minister, will become acting prime minister, government spokesman Bereket Simon told reporters.
He said an election was not necessary as the "constructional procedure" allowed for Mr Hailemariam to "kick off as a full-fledged prime minister".
In an earlier news conference, Mr Bereket said Mr Meles had struggled with illness for a year, but he had continued to work regardless.

Concerns have been expressed - including by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga - that Mr Meles's death could lead to a power vacuum and dangerous instability in Ethiopia.
But Mr Bereket insisted the country was stable and that "everything will continue as charted" by the late prime minister.
This theme was echoed by state television, which stated that "even if Ethiopia has been badly affected for missing its great leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi initiated fundamental policies and strategies which will be further strengthened".
Ethiopia's economy has grown rapidly in recent years, despite the secession of Eritrea and the subsequent war between the two countries.

Under Mr Meles, Ethiopia became a staunch US ally, receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in aid over the years, and hosting the US military drones that patrol East Africa.

He won accolades from the West for sending troops to battle Islamist militants in Somalia, says the BBC's James Copnall.
But concern had been growing about the lack of democracy and human rights in Ethiopia, our correspondent in the region says.
At least 200 people died in the violence that followed the 2005 elections, and many journalists and politicians have been locked up.
One rights critic, Commander Assefa Seifu, called Mr Meles "a devil incarnate".
"He was always talking about democracy, civil rights, adherence to [the] constitution and the like. But it was only a lip service," he told the BBC.

 Analysis

  James Copnall BBC News

Meles Zenawi's death will have repercussions far beyond his country. He was undeniably central to everything in Ethiopia - the good and the bad, the economic growth and development, as well as the repressive climate denounced by opposition politicians and journalists. But he also played a key role in the region.
Since Mr Meles took power in 1991, Ethiopia has seen Eritrea secede, then fought a war with the new country. It also twice sent troops into Somalia to fight militants linked to al-Qaeda.
Ethiopia also has peacekeepers in Abyei, the border region claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan.
Political leaders in all these countries will be carrying out rapid calculations about what Mr Meles' death means for them.
The West has also lost a key ally in the Horn of Africa. Now the attention will switch to whether Mr Meles built a strong enough system to outlast him. He was austere and hardworking, with a discipline forged from years spent in the guerrilla movement - and almost never smiled, says Elizabeth Blunt, the BBC's former correspondent in Addis Ababa. Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said Mr Meles was an "intellectual leader for the continent", and UK Prime Minister David Cameron called him "an inspirational spokesman for Africa" who had lifted millions out of poverty.
But a spokesman for al-Shabab Islamist militants in Somalia - where Mr Meles twice sent troops to fight - told Reuters news agency they were "very glad" of his death, saying Ethiopia was "sure to collapse".
Ethiopia's Council of Ministers announced "with great sadness the untimely death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi" in a statement, state TV reported.
The statement said Mr Meles had been receiving medical treatment abroad for the past two months and that his health was improving. But he developed a "sudden infection" on Sunday and despite emergency treatment, died at 23:40 on Monday.
European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly later told a regular news briefing that Mr Meles "passed away during the night here in Brussels".



How Egyptians see him:

Here is an interesting look on how Egyptian press saw his life. The title of the following article is :

Meles Zenawi....US's cop in the African Horn and the enemy of Egypt's historic share in the Nile

ميليس زيناوى.. الشرطي الأمريكي في القرن الإفريقي وحامل لواء العداوة لحصة مصر من مياه النيل

بعد فترة من التعتيم والسرية الشديدة فرضتها السلطات الإثيوبية دامت أكثر من شهرين بشأن حقيقة مرض رئيس الوزراء ميليس زيناوي، أعلن اليوم الثلاثاء رسميًا عن وفاته في بلجيكا عن عمر ناهز 57 عامًا.

ارتبط اسم زيناوي مع الشارع المصري للمرة الأولى عام 1994 بعد محاولة الاغتيال الفاشلة التى تعرض لها الرئيس السابق حسني مبارك على الأراضى الإثيوبية، وزاد هذا الارتباط في السنوات الأخيرة بسبب إصراره على منازعة مصر في حصتها التاريخية بمياه النيل، وعدم اعترافه باتفاقية نهر النيل الموقعة عام 1959 التى تحدد حصص كل دولة من دول حوض النيل في مياه النهر.

اتخذ زيناوى موقفًا معاديًا لمصر خلال السنوات الثلاث الأخيرة، واتهمها بمحاولة زعزعة أمن واستقرار بلاده عبر بتمويل جماعات متمردة مسلحة تسعى للاستيلاء على السلطة، في موقف فُسِرَ وقتها بأنه محاولة للخروج من أزماته الداخلية ومحاصرة المعارضة له ومطالبته باصلاحات سياسية واقتصادية في البلاد.

استطاع زيناوي أن يؤثر على دول حوض النيل، وقام بإقناع بوروندي وأوغندا وكينيا تنزانيا ورواندا، بتوقيع الاتفاقية الإطارية الجديدة لتقاسم مياه النيل عام 2011، الأمر الذي يهدد أمن مصر المائي بشكل كبير.

وفي سعيه لأن يثبت دعائم حكمه في إثيوبيا؛ انفتح زيناوى على القوى الكبرى وخاصة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، بهدف تحويل بلاده إلى قوى إقليمية في المنطقة مستغلًا في ذلك الحرب على الإرهاب والجماعات الجهادية المسلحة، وسوقَ نفسه باعتباره الشرطي الأمريكي في منطقة القرن الأفريقي، مستغلًا حالة السيولة الشديدة التي تشهدها جارته الصومال، والانفلات الأمني الذي تعيشه بعد أن تحولت إلى قبلة لتنظيم القاعدة، والتنظيمات الجهادية.

قام زيناوي بتحريك جيشه داخل الأراضي الصومالية للمرة الأولى عام 2006 بهدف القضاء على حركة الشباب المتشددة، فيما اعتبر وقتها أكبر خطوة وثقت علاقات إثيوبيا بالغرب منذ الإطاحة بمنجستو هيلا ميريم.

وفي عام 2011 قامت القوات الإثيوبية بدخول الصومال للمرة الثانية بدعم أمريكي أوروبي، وأكد زيناوي أن بلاده تعتزم الإبقاء على قواتها في الصومال إلى حين التصديق على دستور جديد للبلاد، و يصبح جيشها قادرًا على مواجهة خطر المتشددين.

دخل زيناوى في علاقات وثيقة مع إسرائيل، وفتح الباب على مصراعيه للأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية خاصة الموساد، وتحولت أديس أبابا إلى واحدة من أقوى قواعد الموساد في إفريقيا ومعبر تل أبيب القوى للتغلل في غرب ووسط القارة الإفريقية، تحت ستار تصدير تكنولوجيا الري والزراعة التى تتفوق فيها الدولة العبرية إلى القارة السمراء.


وبالرغم من الانتقادات الشديدة التى وجهت إلى زيناوي، يُحسب له القفزة الكبيرة التى شهدها الاقتصاد الإثيوبي خلال سنوات حكمه، وتحقيقه معدلات نمو تخطت الستة فى المائة خلال السنوات الخمس الأخيرة، وكان أكثر المجالات نموًا في البلاد هو الزراعة، التى أولاها اهتماما شديدًا نظرًا للامكانيات الإثيوبية الكبيرة غير المستغله فى الأراضى والمياه.

جدير بالذكر أن زيناوي ولد عام 1954 في إقليم تكراي بشمال إثيوپيا، ودرس الطب في جامعة أديس أبابا وكانت تعرف وقتها باسم جامعة هيلا سلاسي لمدة سنتين، ثم ترك دراسة الطب عام 1975، وانضم إلى جبهة تحرير شعب تكراي، وعندما كان عضوا في الجبهة، أسس الاتحاد الماركسي-اللنيني لتكراي.

تولى زيناوى حكم إثيوبيا عام 1991م، بعد أن أطاح المجلس العسكري الذي كان عضوًا بارزًا فيه بالديكتاتور السابق منجستو هيلا مريم، واستمر في منصبه حتى عام 1995 ، ثم تولى رئاسة الوزراء منذ ذلك الحين بعد أن أجرى اصلاحات سياسية وتعديلات غيرت نظام الحكم في البلاد من رئاسي إلى برلماني، بهدف عدم صناعة ديكتاتور جديد، بيد أن هذا الهدف لم يتحقق بعد أن أحكم زيناوي قبضته على إثيوبيا، واستمر على رأس النظام السياسي أكثر من 20 عامًا، كنتيجه لإصراره على وضع مادة في الدستور تنص على تحصين منصب رئيس الوزراء من الإقالة.

حصل زيناوي على ماجستير في إدارة الأعمال من الجامعة المفتوحة في المملكة المتحدة عام 1995، ثم ماجستير العلوم في الاقتصاد من جامعة إراسموس في هولندا عام 2004.

في عام 1998 تعرض زيناوى إلى أقوى اختبار في حياته السياسية عندما قامت إريتريا بغزو بلاده، مما أدى لاندلاع حرب أسفرت عن مقتل عشرات الآلاف من الشعبين.

أظهر زيناوي خلال الحرب مع إثيوبيا قدرة سياسية وعسكرية بارعة استطاع خلالها أن يوحد الشعب الإثيوبي خلف قواته، وتمكن من دحر القوات الإريترية بل وسيطر على على حوالي ثلثي الأراضي الإرترية، وبالرغم من ذلك قام بتوقيع معاهدة سلام مثيرة للجدل مع إريتريا تضمن لها امتيازات عديدة.

أثار هذا القرار غضب الكثير من الإثيوپيين وأدى إلى حالة انقسام داخل الحزب الحاكم، بسبب قناعة كثيرين أن زيناوي يرغب في الحفاظ على الرئيس الإريتري أسياسي أفورقي.

وفي عام 2011 تغير موقف زيناوي من أفورقي وأعلنت إثيوبيا صراحة دعمها لجماعات إريترية متمردة تسعى للإطاحة بالرئيس أفورقي. وفي مارس الماضي أقرت إثيوبيا للمرة الأولى أن قواتها قامت بهجمات على المتمردين داخل إريتريا، وكانت هذه أول مرة تعترف فيها أديس أبابا بوقوع مثل تلك الهجمات منذ انتهاء الحرب الحدودية بين البلدين

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/13/71/242647/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%B2%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B7%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7.aspx .

Understanding Propaganda in North Korea: The Vice Guide to North Korea

If you have watched the news lately, you would have probably came across scenes of north Koreans crying to mourn their former leader Kim Yong Il in a hysteric way.

Fake? not fake? who knows?? but anyway, you should understand the propaganda & manipulation that these people live into.

The following clips are a three part short documentary made by two people who had the chance to get into North Korea. It's a rare trip into one of the very last old- style propaganda dens.

Part 1:



Part 2:



Part 3: